Tropical Cyclone Maila has intensified and could threaten Queensland’s coast next week, though forecasters warn multiple tracking scenarios remain possible.
Australia is on alert for another cyclone as forecasters warn there is major uncertainty about the path of the Category 2 system.
Tropical Cyclone Maila is developing in the Solomon Sea, with winds expected to reach up to 120 km/h into next week and reach Category 3 status.
And while the path of Maila is still uncertain, Queensland could face the brunt of the storm in the next seven days.
Wind radius
| Wind radius | North East quadrant | South East quadrant | South West quadrant | North West quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 knots | 120 nautical miles 220 kilometres | 90 nautical miles 165 kilometres | 90 nautical miles 165 kilometres | 130 nautical miles 240 kilometres |
| 48 knots | 60 nautical miles 110 kilometres | 40 nautical miles 75 kilometres | 40 nautical miles 75 kilometres | 50 nautical miles 95 kilometres |
Forecast
| Time/date from issue Coordinated Universal Time | Latitude and longitude | Accurate within | Max wind | Pressure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +6 hours | 1800 05 Apr | 9.5° South, 154.7° East | 45 nautical miles 85 kilometres | 75 knots 140 kilometres per hour | 966 hectopascals |
| +12 hours | 0000 06 Apr | 9.6° South, 154.9° East | 50 nautical miles 95 kilometres | 80 knots 150 kilometres per hour | 961 hectopascals |
| +18 hours | 0600 06 Apr | 9.7° South, 155.2° East | 55 nautical miles 100 kilometres | 85 knots 155 kilometres per hour | 958 hectopascals |
| +24 hours | 1200 06 Apr | 9.8° South, 155.6° East | 55 nautical miles 105 kilometres | 90 knots 165 kilometres per hour | 953 hectopascals |
| +36 hours | 0000 07 Apr | 9.9° South, 156.1° East | 65 nautical miles 120 kilometres | 95 knots 175 kilometres per hour | 947 hectopascals |
| +48 hours | 1200 07 Apr | 10.0° South, 156.1° East | 70 nautical miles 130 kilometres | 90 knots 165 kilometres per hour | 951 hectopascals |
| +60 hours | 0000 08 Apr | 10.0° South, 155.8° East | 80 nautical miles 145 kilometres | 85 knots 155 kilometres per hour | 956 hectopascals |
| +72 hours | 1200 08 Apr | 10.0° South, 155.2° East | 90 nautical miles 170 kilometres | 75 knots 140 kilometres per hour | 966 hectopascals |
| +96 hours | 1200 09 Apr | 10.8° South, 152.7° East | 120 nautical miles 220 kilometres | 70 knots 130 kilometres per hour | 972 hectopascals |
| +120 hours | 1200 10 Apr | 11.8° South, 149.5° East | 130 nautical miles 240 kilometres | 65 knots 120 kilometres per hour | 977 hectopascals |
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila continues to intensify in the Solomon Sea. Position is based on EIR imagery and lightning detection with fair confidence. There have been no recent microwave passes. A recent ASCAT pass at 1121 UTC sampled part of the western side of the circulation and showed gales extending to 110 nm in the northwest quadrant and 80 nm in the southwest quadrant. Recent satellite imagery shows a large central dense overcast over the low-level centre, with frequent lightning near the core. Intensity is assessed at 65 knots, biased above the subjective Dvorak estimate on the strength of the DPRINT objective guidance. Dvorak analysis gives an embedded centre pattern with DT=5.0, based on an embedded distance greater than 50 nm. MET=3.5 with a developing trend, and PAT 4.0. FT and CI are based on PAT rather than the embedded centre pattern. Available objective guidance at 1120 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 61 kn, AiDT 65 kn and DPRINT 87 kn. DMINT, MW sounders and SATCON were unavailable. Maila has continued to consolidate and the environment remains favourable for further intensification. Vertical wind shear has decreased to below 15 knots, SSTs are near 30C, moisture remains ample, and upper-level outflow is good. Guidance supports further intensification through Tuesday, followed by possible weakening thereafter. The extent of any later weakening will depend on the motion of the system and whether it tracks closer to land. The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and northwesterly flow to the north, resulting in slow and at times erratic motion through about Wednesday. From mid-week, steering is expected to become more complex. A mid-level ridge strengthening to the east is the most likely influence to take Maila west or southwest into the Coral Sea. However, ensemble guidance shows considerable spread later in the week, with some members taking the system south into the Coral Sea and others westwards towards the far north Queensland coast. Confidence in the longer-term track remains low.
Remarks
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila continues to intensify in the Solomon Sea. Position is based on EIR imagery and lightning detection with fair confidence. There have been no recent microwave passes. A recent ASCAT pass at 1121 UTC sampled part of the western side of the circulation and showed gales extending to 110 nm in the northwest quadrant and 80 nm in the southwest quadrant. Recent satellite imagery shows a large central dense overcast over the low-level centre, with frequent lightning near the core. Intensity is assessed at 65 knots, biased above the subjective Dvorak estimate on the strength of the DPRINT objective guidance. Dvorak analysis gives an embedded centre pattern with DT=5.0, based on an embedded distance greater than 50 nm. MET=3.5 with a developing trend, and PAT 4.0. FT and CI are based on PAT rather than the embedded centre pattern. Available objective guidance at 1120 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 61 kn, AiDT 65 kn and DPRINT 87 kn. DMINT, MW sounders and SATCON were unavailable. Maila has continued to consolidate and the environment remains favourable for further intensification. Vertical wind shear has decreased to below 15 knots, SSTs are near 30C, moisture remains ample, and upper-level outflow is good. Guidance supports further intensification through Tuesday, followed by possible weakening thereafter. The extent of any later weakening will depend on the motion of the system and whether it tracks closer to land. The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and northwesterly flow to the north, resulting in slow and at times erratic motion through about Wednesday. From mid-week, steering is expected to become more complex. A mid-level ridge strengthening to the east is the most likely influence to take Maila west or southwest into the Coral Sea. However, ensemble guidance shows considerable spread later in the week, with some members taking the system south into the Coral Sea and others westwards towards the far north Queensland coast. Confidence in the longer-term track remains low.
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